Estimated Registered & Likely Voters by Neighborhood
with Tenure Breakdown

Los Angeles City Council District 3 · 2026 Primary Cycle

POP SOURCE: LA Almanac ACS 2024 CITIZENSHIP: LA City Planning ACS 2020–2024 / 2013–2017 TENURE: LA DCP ACS 2020–2024 TURNOUT MODEL: 2022 CD3 Primary (~26–32% of reg.)

Primary Sources LA Almanac — Neighborhood Populations (ACS 2024) · LA DCP — Canoga Pk / WH / Winnetka Demographic Profile (ACS 2020–2024) · LA DCP — Reseda–West Van Nuys Demographic Profile (ACS 2013–2017) · DataUSA — Canoga Pk / Winnetka / WH PUMA Citizenship (2023) · LA Almanac — Voter Registration Totals (Feb 2025) · LA City Planning — Demographics Hub

Owner-occupied voters

Renter-occupied voters

SOURCED Direct ACS data

MODELED Derived estimate

Neighborhood	Population (2024 est.)	Citizen Share	Est. CVAP	Reg. Rate	Est. Reg. Voters	Turnout Rate	Est. Likely Voters	Owner / Renter Split (reg. voters)	Owner Likely	Renter Likely
Woodland Hills CPA: Canoga Pk–WH–Winnetka sourced Citizenship: 64.9% native + 22.3% naturalized = 87.2% citizen	~67,000	~87% sourced	~40,100	~76%	~22,000–26,000	~30–33%	~6,600–8,600	65% owner35% renter	~4,300–5,600	~2,300–3,000
Tarzana CPA: Encino–Tarzana (no current profile) Citizenship via DataUSA PUMA (85.1%, 2023) PUMA-level only	~36,000	~85% modeled	~20,400	~75%	~13,000–16,000	~28–32%	~3,600–5,100	60% owner40% renter	~2,200–3,100	~1,400–2,000
Winnetka CPA: Canoga Pk–WH–Winnetka sourced Lower citizen rate vs WH: higher Latino/immigrant share within same CPA	~53,000	~83% sourced	~28,700	~70%	~15,000–18,000	~26–30%	~3,900–5,400	52% owner48% renter	~2,000–2,800	~1,900–2,600
Canoga Park CPA: Canoga Pk–WH–Winnetka sourced CPA non-citizen rate 14.3%; Canoga Pk modeled slightly higher (more Hispanic immigrant households)	~55,000	~82% sourced	~28,600	~68%	~14,000–17,000	~26–29%	~3,600–4,900	50% owner50% renter	~1,800–2,500	~1,800–2,400
Reseda (CD3 portion only) CPA: Reseda–W. Van Nuys (2013–2017 ACS) extrapolated 2017 data: 59% native + 23% naturalized = 82% citizen → modeled at ~80% (trend toward more non-citizen). Pop est. ~42K = approx. western half of full ~84K neighborhood (CD3 portion only).	~42,000	~80% modeled	~20,200	~65%	~10,000–13,000	~25–28%	~2,500–3,600	45% owner55% renter	~1,100–1,600	~1,400–2,000
CD3 Total (these 5 nbhds)	~253,000	—	—	—	~74,000–90,000	—	~20,200–27,600	—	~11,400–15,600	~8,800–12,000
Likely voter totals reflect est. ~55–58% owner / ~42–45% renter across CD3 — vs. ~50% owner by raw household count. Homeowner turnout premium accounts for the gap.

How Estimates Were Derived — Step by Step

1 Population → CVAP

CVAP = Pop × Citizen% × VAP-adjustment (~0.60–0.69)

Citizen share = native-born + foreign-born naturalized, from LA City Planning ACS profiles. The CPA-wide rate is then adjusted for the under-18 population (who are counted in citizenship data but cannot vote). VAP adjustment ranges from 0.60 (younger neighborhoods like Canoga Park) to 0.69 (older neighborhoods like Woodland Hills). Winnetka and Canoga Park are modeled 2–4pp below the CPA citizen average because internal demographic variation within the CPA places more immigrant households in the flatlands west of De Soto Ave.

Ex. Woodland Hills: 67,000 × 0.87 × 0.69 = ~40,200 CVAP.
Ex. Reseda: 42,000 × 0.80 × 0.60 = ~20,200 CVAP (lower VAP factor = younger population).

2 CVAP → Registered Voters

Reg. Voters = CVAP × Registration Rate (65–76%)

LA County's overall registration rate among CVAP is ~72–74% (LA Almanac, Feb 2025). Registration rates are adjusted upward for higher-income, higher-homeownership neighborhoods (Woodland Hills, Tarzana) and downward for higher-renter, higher-linguistic-isolation neighborhoods (Reseda, Canoga Park). Linguistic isolation rates from the ACS profiles inform these adjustments: the Canoga Pk/WH/Winnetka CPA has 20.5% Spanish linguistic isolation and the Reseda CPA had 24% Spanish linguistic isolation in 2017.

Ex. Woodland Hills: 40,100 CVAP × 76% = ~30,500 (midpoint); range applied as 72–78% → ~22,000–26,000.
Ex. Reseda: 20,200 CVAP × 65% = ~13,100 (midpoint); range 63–68% → ~10,000–13,000.

3 Registered → Likely Voters

Likely Voters = Reg. Voters × Turnout Rate (25–33%)

Modeled on the 2022 CD3 City Council primary, which saw ~26–32% of registered voters cast ballots. Turnout is higher in neighborhoods with older median ages, higher homeownership, and higher income — all of which correlate with habitual voting. Woodland Hills (older, wealthier, higher homeownership) gets the highest rate. Reseda and Canoga Park get the lowest. A higher-profile 2026 race could push all rates 5–8pp higher uniformly.

Ex. Woodland Hills: 22,000–26,000 reg. × 30–33% = ~6,600–8,600 likely voters.
Ex. Reseda: 10,000–13,000 reg. × 25–28% = ~2,500–3,600 likely voters.

4 Tenure Split Among Voters

Owner% (voters) ≈ Household Owner% + ~5–10pp premium per stage

Homeowners register and vote at systematically higher rates than renters in municipal elections. Household-level tenure data comes directly from LA DCP ACS 2020–2024 (51.7% owner, Canoga Pk/WH/Winnetka CPA) and LA DCP ACS 2013–2017 (51% owner, Reseda–W. Van Nuys CPA). Individual neighborhoods within CPAs are further differentiated by median home value (Woodland Hills median ~$1.1M vs. Canoga Park ~$715K per Zillow). Each step from household → registered → likely voter tilts ~5pp more toward owners.

Ex. Reseda: ~49% owner households → ~45% among reg. voters → ~43% among likely voters.
Ex. Woodland Hills: ~58% owner households → ~62% among reg. voters → ~65% among likely voters.

5 Reseda — CD3 Geographic Portion

CD3 Reseda ≈ western ~50% of full neighborhood (~42K of ~84K total)

Reseda spans three council districts (CD3, CD4, CD12). No official precinct-to-neighborhood crosswalk is publicly available. The western half of Reseda (roughly west of Reseda Blvd) is estimated to fall in CD3. Population of ~42,000 is the most uncertain figure in the table. To verify and refine, a CPRA request to the LA County Registrar-Recorder for registered voter counts by census tract, mapped to CD3 boundaries, would give a precise answer. The Jon Rawlings campaign may already have this via the voter file.

Note: The full Reseda–West Van Nuys CPA also includes West Van Nuys, which is largely in CD6. The ACS demographic profile covers both communities together; Reseda-specific subsets are not published separately.

6 Confidence Levels by Data Type

Highest confidence → Lowest confidence

SOURCED (direct ACS): Citizenship and tenure for the Canoga Pk/WH/Winnetka CPA are from the 2020–2024 ACS — the most current available.

MODELED (extrapolated): Reseda citizenship is from 2013–2017 ACS data, adjusted for likely demographic drift. Tarzana uses PUMA-level data that doesn't isolate the Encino-Tarzana CPA.

MOST UNCERTAIN: Reseda's CD3 geographic boundary split, all turnout rates (no 2026 analog exists yet), and within-CPA variation between Woodland Hills and the other neighborhoods in the same CPA.

The true answer requires: voter file by census tract + precinct-to-neighborhood crosswalk. The LA County Registrar sells this data. Campaigns use it for targeting.

Additional Notes

These 5 neighborhoods are a subset of CD3. West Hills, Chatsworth, Porter Ranch, and Northridge (partial) are not included.
Tarzana citizenship sourced from DataUSA PUMA — covers Canoga Pk/Winnetka/WH, not Encino-Tarzana specifically. No standalone Encino-Tarzana DCP profile was located.
Reseda citizenship extrapolated from 2013–2017 ACS. Non-citizen share has likely grown slightly; 80% citizen is a conservative estimate.
VAP adjustment (share of population aged 18+) varies from ~60% (Canoga Park, younger) to ~69% (Woodland Hills, older). Age structure sourced from the same LA DCP profiles.
Winnetka and Canoga Park share a CPA profile with Woodland Hills but are modeled with lower citizenship and registration rates due to higher Hispanic immigrant population share in the western/flatter portions of the CPA.
Sources last accessed March 2026. Check planning.lacity.gov/resources/demographics for newer ACS profiles as they are published.